Sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks feasted on Sunday, as Week 12 dogs went 8-4 ATS with four outright wins and Unders went 8-4. Nearly every chalky favorite failed to cover for the public as unpopular ’dogs barked loudly for those brave enough to grab the points instead of lay them.
Here are the four underdog outright winners: 49ers (+5) beat Rams, 23-20; Falcons (+3.5) beat Raiders, 43-6; Titans (+3) beat Colts, 45-26; Patriots (+1) beat Cardinals, 20-17
The 49ers (+7 to +5), Titans (+ 4.5 to +3) and Patriots (+2.5 to +1) came up huge for wise guys. All three were unpopular bets but received big reverse line movement in their favor. The Falcons cashed as a buy-low, inflated line value play, moving from a pick ’em to + 3.5 while only receiving about one-third of bets.
“The Raiders game was clearly the biggest of the day in all facets, the highest ticket count by far,” said Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at Stations Casinos. “More straight, parlay, moneyline and Over money. We had a huge all moneyline parlay that would have paid $200k with the only loser being the Raiders.”
There were four other underdog covers: Jaguars (+7.5) lost to Browns, 27-25; Bengals (+6) lost to Giants, 19-17; Bucs (+ 3.5) lost to Chiefs, 27-24; Panthers (+3) lost to Vikings, 28-27.
The Jaguars (+6 to +7.5) and Bengals (+4.5 to +6) both covered as unpopular home ’dogs with inflated lines. The Panthers (+4.5 to +3) received sharp reverse line movement, with the line moving in their favor despite the public pounding the Vikings. The Buccaneers (+3 to + 3.5) covered as a marquee contrarian play in a heavily bet game.
“The Giants game was a monster decision for us,” said Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City. “We had a steady stream of Giants money coming in all week, even as the point spread kept creeping up. The backdoor cover by the Bengals was huge, as 88 percent of the money on the spread was on the Giants.”
With ’dogs going 8-4 ATS, they improve to 98-77 ATS (56 percent) on the season. ’Dogs with line movement in their favor are now 49-28 ATS (64 percent). Short road ’dogs +6 or less are 43-25 ATS (63 percent).
Here are the four favorite covers: Saints (-17) beat Broncos, 31-3; Packers (-7.5) beat Bears, 41-25; Dolphins (-7.5) beat Jets, 20-3; Bills (-4.5) beat Chargers, 27-17.
The books took a big hit as the Saints (-6 to -17) covered easily as a massive public favorite. Average Joes rushed to lay the points with Denver missing all of its quarterbacks. It proved successful as New Orleans won by 28 points. Sharps got it wrong with the Bears (+9.5 to +7.5) and the Chargers (+6 to +4.5). Both saw reverse line movement and came up short as the public rolled with the Packers and Bills.
BetMGM reported six-figure winning bets on the Saints -14.5, Bills -4.5 and Texans -3 (Thanksgiving).